This is where you can learn about changes in area home values and forecasts for the future. Be sure to check back on a regular basis for new and valuable changes!
  • Overall median price change of new and resale homes, 2001 to 2006

    Percentage of change 2001-2006 / Percentage of Change 2005 - 2006 / Overall Median Price in 2006

    Cave Creek: 113.9% / 11.3% / $528,875

    Carefree: 137.6% / 19% / $875,000

    North Scottsdale by zip code:

    85255 - 135.7% / 9.9% / $780,000

    85262 - 161.4% / 26.6% / $915,000

    86260 - 122.9% / 8.7% / $565,000

    85254 - 125.7% / 12.9% / $535,000

    Paradise Valley: 124,4% / 33.1% / $1,850,000

     Information provided by the Arizona Republic 03/11/07

  • Outlook 2005 - Greater Phoenix Area

     

    Outlook 2005, September 9, 2004

    Provided by area industry experts

     

    Phoenix Outlook:

     

    • In 2003, Arizona was 6th in U.S. in job growth; 31 states lost jobs
    • In 2004, thru June, Arizona was 3rd in job growth; 10 states lost jobs
    • AZ has the 2nd fastest growing economy in the nation
    • Phoenix-Mesa Employment growth at #2, is much better than virtually anywhere in the nation
    • Semiconductor industry will take off again with resultant job growth. Intel is set to reopen one of its facilities
    • Post-recession job creation – Phoenix went into recession later and came out sooner than U.S. as a whole and we’re now growing at twice the rate of the U.S. economy
    • Phoenix- Mesa employment – about 50,000 jobs will be created this year and about 70,000 next year.  More growth this year and next year in education and health services
    • Phoenix is growing at about 100,000 people per year.  Every time the population increases by 2.8 people, we need another housing unit.  AZ is 2nd in population growth for the 10th year in a row – and has been virtually every decade since WWII
    • Every year we add 100,000 to 110,000 people – this growth is expected ad infinitum
    • Single family new home permits are up 40% this year over last year at this time; resale permits are up 28%
    • About 15 to 20% of the market is investor homes –not good.  If too many houses come on the market at the same time, the market could slow
    • Housing Bubble? What happens in San Diego, New York City or San Jose has nothing to do with what is going on in Phoenix

     

    Joe Porter – CB Richard Ellis – Office and Industrial:

     

    Industrial – West Valley will be the hot spot. Not only are there a lot of master planned communities being built, like Verrado and Sundance, but there will be a big need for industrial space as well.

     

    Office – Scottsdale Airpark, Perimeter Center and Kierland will be the best office space in the metro area. Strong office space areas will be the Loop 101 from Chaparral to Desert Ridge, Deer Valley and Chandler.

     

    Lenders love the Phoenix market.

     

    Judi Butterworth – DeRito Partners -- Retail:

     

    • 27 planned power centers along the loop 101, 202 and 303 freeways
    • Big Box retailers are making commitments long before the freeways are finished
    • 5 planned Westcor Malls
    • Retail is experiencing an invasion of Las Vegas developers because Las Vegas is out of land.  This is and will have a big impact on the retail market and cost per square foot
    • The future in retail in the Phoenix market is very bright for the next 10 years, barring another terrorist attack

     

    Stanley Cook – Housing Market:

    ·        All elements are here for the continuation of good growth.  We have one of the greatest markets in the U.S., second only to Atlanta, which is much different than ours.  In Phoenix it take 1000 homes per year to make it into the top 10 home builders – that’s huge

    ·        Our marketplace is a 12 month building market – most are not. Big advantage

    ·        Sundance in the west Valley has new homes going in for under $100,000 – Sundance is a retirement community

    ·        There will be a new Sun City on the west side of the White Tanks Mountains, Call Sun City Festival.  There will be 9,000 units built by Pulte

    ·        Rancho El Dorado, just north of Casa Grande, is a new master planned community in Maricopa and only 20 minutes from the southern Tempe and Chandler business markets

    ·        “If you think the last 10 years were big in Phoenix, just wait and see where the next 10 years will go”

    ·        All the surrounding states in the Southwest have problems affecting housing: New Mexico, Colorado, Vegas, California and Utah – all have very limited growth potential due in part to affordability, land availability and water EXCEPT the Phoenix area.  Vegas is “frozen” now due to lack of water

    ·        USAA alone will have 30,000 employees when it’s built out

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • High Demand for Luxury Homes Continues - Oct 2004

    High demand for luxury homes continues

    Glen Creno
    The Arizona Republic
    Oct. 20, 2004 12:00 AM

    Players in metropolitan Phoenix's luxury home market say demand for expensive houses is running high despite rising prices and scarce land in desirable neighborhoods.

    Traditional luxury enclave Paradise Valley leads the pack when it comes to highest median price but values are rising faster in other expensive spots. Among them: North Scottsdale, Carefree and the Biltmore and Arcadia areas of Phoenix.


    Investors, retired executives, athletes or successful business types looking for the ultimate in move-up housing are helping drive sales of new and existing luxury homes. Their willingness to pay up for a big house loaded with things such as a home theater, gourmet kitchen and wine room on a sizable lot is ratcheting up prices and changing the boundaries of the luxury market.

    "It's nuts out there," said Tori Levitt, senior mortgage consultant with Optimum Financial. "I think it is a great market for both buyer and seller."

    Buyers benefit with low interest rates and interest-only loans that keep payments down, she said. Sellers, she said, are enjoying multiple offers and noted that full-price offers are becoming pass    頡s most serious buyers are bidding above the list price to lock up the deal.

    "Values are jumping by the thousands in the span of just a few months," Levitt said. "Sellers are negating appraisals out of the contracts and requesting non-refundable earnest deposits following inspection periods."

    Home values in pricey neighborhoods have been on a tear in recent years. The median price in the combined new and resale markets in the Paradise Valley ZIP code 85253 has risen from $687,500 in 1999 to $938,750 in the first half of this year, a gain of more than 36 percent, according to The Arizona Republic's analysis of data from Marketon.

    That market has cooled somewhat since last year but nearby luxury ZIPs are hotter than ever. North Scottsdale's 85255 ZIP, home to trendy communities such as DC Ranch and Troon, was a strong performer last year but moved into the elite class of price gainers, up more than 17 percent in the first half of this year.

    The median overall price in the ZIP is $499,250, beaten only by Paradise Valley, Carefree and neighboring ZIP 85259 that covers the Shea Boulevard corridor on Scottsdale's eastern boundary.

    Some Valley housing pros still define a luxury home as one that costs at least $1 million. But others say that $1 million doesn't get you in the door in the best neighborhoods and insist that luxury really starts at around $3 million.

    The top house deals in metropolitan Phoenix routinely run in the $2 million range and $3 million sales aren't unusual. In a recent week this month, all of the top 10 house sales were $2 million or more, with two exceeding $6 million and one other of more than $3 million.

    "The days of building a $2 million custom home in north Scottsdale or Paradise Valley are rapidly coming to a close," said Tony Calvis, a principal of Calvis Wyant Luxury Homes, a custom builder in Scottsdale.

    Commercial real estate developer Russ Scaramella and his wife, Lori, looked at houses all over the Valley before settling on a DC Ranch home that was under construction. The couple figures they saved time and money by buying a speculative, or "spec," house that Calvis Wyant was working on. They still were able to pick out the features that would give the house its final look while bypassing a big chunk of the building process.

    The house cost between $4 million and $5 million and covers 8,200 square feet. The couple evaluated the house for its investment potential and knew they were moving to a neighborhood that is appreciating. But they also sized it up for its proximity to schools, its views and as a place to raise their four children.

    "We didn't buy it to sell it," Russ Scaramella said. "We bought it to live in it."

    Rising land prices are helping drive up the price of luxury homes. The wave of teardowns, the practice of buying and destroying an old house to clear the lot for a new mansion, is moving beyond Paradise Valley and Arcadia. Calvis said it's happening more often between 64th Street and Scottsdale Road, mainly between Shea Boulevard and Cactus Road where buyers are attracted to houses sitting on acre-sized, or larger, lots. Phoenix's Central Avenue Corridor also is picking up more teardown action as buyers who work downtown try to shorten their commutes.

    "The big thing is this just continues to be a great place to live," Calvis said. "Because of that, I'm very bullish on the future. . . . We don't have an ocean but it is pretty close and people in California who have an ocean don't have a problem coming here."

     

  • Resale housing market update January 2005

    LATEST NEWS (From the Arizona Business Journal)

    1:06 PM MST Tuesday

    Resale housing market up 38 percent over last year

    The Valley's resale home market jumped 38 percent in 2004, rising from 73,785 homes changing hands in 2003 to 102,115 recorded sales last year.

    Since 2000, the local resale housing market has consistently set new records, officials of the Arizona Real Estate Center at the East College at Arizona State University said Tuesday.

    For the year, the median home price increased 22 percent, going from $156,000 in January to $190,000 in December.

    The median square footage for a single-family home sold in 2004 was 1,685 square feet, while it was reported as 1,670 square feet in 2003.

    "There are four basic motivations that drive home buyers: the need for housing, especially for new residents; the desire to own, not rent; the dream to improve current housing; and/or to invest in housing as a rental or seasonal home," said Dr. Jay Q. Butler, Arizona Real Estate Center director.

    Looking across the Valley:

    1. • Recorded sales in Phoenix improved from 20,100 to 27,075 sales, while the median sales price increased from $126,000 to $139,500.

    2. • Scottsdale's resale market increased by nearly 2,100 sales to 9,485 sales in 2004. The median sales price also continued its strong upward movement from $322,000 to $385,000.

    3. • The resale market in Mesa also expanded from last year's 9,205 sales to 12,310 sales. The median price increased from $141,000 to $158,000.

    4. • Glendale sales activity increased from 6,345 sales to 7,695 sales, while the median sales price increased from $142,000 to $158,900.

    5. • The Sun City West resale market increased from 1,035 sales to 1,065 sales, and the median sales price also increased from $144,500 to $165,000. In Sun City, sales activity improved from 1,770 sales to 2,065 sales while the median sales price increased from $118,000 to $136,925.

    6. • The Gilbert resale market jumped from 1,755 resales to 6,310 sales in 2004 while the median sales price improved from $174,500 to $205,000.

    7. • Chandler's resale market improved from 5,610 to 7,280 sales, while the median sales price increased from $162,000 to $186,000.

    8. • The resale market in Tempe expanded from 2,205 sales to 2,530, while the median sales price moved from $166,925 to $182,000.

    9. • Avondale's resales jumped from 1,080 to 2,145, with the median sales price jumping from $148,800 to $163,000.

    10. • El Mirage's resale market more than doubled to 1,340 sales and the median sales jumped nearly $17,000 over the year to $134,900.

    11. • In Goodyear, the resale market increased from 920 in 2003 to 1,900 sales in 2004, with the median sales price posting an increase from $163,500 to $183,000.

    12. • And the Surprise housing resales jumped from 1,865 to 3,685 sales and the median sales price jumped from $140,000 to $164,900.

     

    The highest median sales price was in Paradise Valley at $925,000 with a median square footage of 3,525 square feet.

    Butler noted that low interest rates continue to support the strong housing market.

    With that in mind, Butler said in order to sustain home buyer motivation, the economic recovery must continue, home prices must not rise so quickly as to result in affordability issues and future traumatic events must be limited.

    For more: www.east.asu.edu.

  • Appraisal "Fraud"

    Appraisal fraud: your home at risk

    Appraisers say they're being pressured by lenders to inflate their estimates of home values.
    June 2, 2005: 9:56 AM EDT
    By Sarah Max, CNN/Money senior writer

     

     

     

    SALEM, Ore. (CNN/Money) – Anyone who's ever bought or refinanced a home knows the sense of relief when the appraisal comes in with high marks.

    The appraisal tells bankers, brokers and, ultimately, investors whether a house is a sound investment.

    But, as the Appraisal Institute recently testified to Congress, appraisers are under increasing pressure from lenders, mortgage bankers and real estate agents to "hit their number" when appraising property.

    Rather than come up with an independent estimate of a home's value, appraisers -- who are typically independent contractors -- say they are being told to base their estimate on a predetermined value.

    Alan Zielinski, owner of FAST Appraisals in Lake Barrington, Ill., said he's surprised if he doesn't get a call questioning his estimate.

    "All [lenders and brokers] want to do is hit the number because if they don't hit the number the deal doesn't go through and if the deal doesn't go through they don't get the commission," said Zielinski.

    In theory, it's in a bank's best interest to make sure its loans are based on accurate appraisals, said M. Thomas Martin, of the National Mortgage Complaint Center in Seattle. "But if you're selling the loans to the secondary market, you really don't care," he said. "The higher the value, the better."

    (In the secondary market for mortgages, primary lenders sell off the loans they originate to other institutions, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.)

    If a lender sells a loan to the secondary market knowing that the appraisal is inaccurate, said Tim Doyle, director in government affairs with the Mortgage Bankers Association, the lender is held accountable.

    "Our position is that we have the same concern with inaccurate appraisal as does the conscientious homebuyer," he said.

    Trouble is, pressure on appraisers is often subtle and not easy to prove, said Don Kelly, vice president of public affairs for the Appraisal Institute, which is calling for stronger regulation at the state level and legislation prohibiting lenders from meddling with the process.

    The problem is so widespread, that more than 8,000 appraisers – roughly 10 percent of the industry – have signed a petition asking the federal government to take action.

    Appraisers, like auditors, are supposed to follow a strict standard of professional behavior, said David Callahan, senior fellow at the public policy organization Demos and author of a recent report about appraisal fraud. "What is actually happening is lenders and brokers are telling them what value they want," he said. "If [appraisers] don't play ball, they don't get paid or don't get work again."

    Inflated values

    A puffed up appraisal can have serious consequences for a homeowner down the road.

    "There are a lot of people who have refinanced for more than their homes are actually worth and they're effectively already upside down even without a real estate bubble bursting," said Callahan. Down the road if they have to sell or decide to refinance, a more accurate appraisal might show that they owe more than the house is worth.

    "The real issue is on the refinance side where people are cashing out of their equity on the basis of higher and higher values," said Zielinski, who before accepting a job e-mails lenders and brokers to remind them that he is obligated to appraise property based on market conditions, not a predetermined value. "Conservatively, I'd say that 10 percent of the houses I appraise are worth less than the mortgage on them."

    One overvalued appraisal can skew home prices throughout a neighborhood, according to the Appraisal Institute's Kelly. "If a house is appraised for 10 percent or 15 percent more than it's actually worth and the sale closes, it may be used by another appraiser as a comparable sale the very next day," he said. "It has a ripple effect."

    That could have even greater implications, said Martin. "The cumulative effect of appraisal fraud is you may have investors holding mortgage debt that's backed by real estate worth less than they think it is," said Martin. "It's a train wreck waiting to happen."

     

  • Market nears Peak after Record Year - October 2005

    Catherine Reagor, Glen Creno and Ryan Konig
    The     Arizona Republic
    Oct. 22, 2005 12:00 AM

    Metropolitan Phoenix's highflying housing market is finally nearing a peak after a record-breaking run of soaring prices and sales.

    Prices of new and resale homes in several neighborhoods shot up more than 40 percent during the first nine months of this year, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of Maricopa and Pinal County ZIP code data from the Information Market. An analysis of the data shows most areas reaped their biggest price gains this year. But the appreciation gains have slowed during the past few months, signaling that metro     Phoenix's biggest housing price run-ups are behind it for now.

    Despite the frothy feeling behind the recent jump in housing costs, no one is saying the market will bubble and burst causing home prices to deflate. But homeowners shouldn't expect the 10 percent monthly jumps they saw in the spring.

    "We're probably getting pretty close to the peak," said Jay Butler, head of the Arizona Real Estate Center at Arizona State University Polytechnic.

     


    Metro     Phoenix's housing market led the nation for price jumps during the past year. Investors, move-up buyers, new residents, second-home buyers and first-timers all jumped in and paid high prices.

    The run-ups have come at a price. For the first time, Valley housing costs have surpassed the national median, but     Phoenix incomes haven't climbed at nearly the same rate as the area's home prices. The resulting affordability crunch is knocking a growing number of buyers out of the market and causing others to find roommates or creative financing.

    So a slowdown in home-price increases is warranted for metro     Phoenix to entice new residents and home buyers, real estate analysts say.

    Appreciation gains slow

    In the 1990s, Phoenix-area homeowners were happy with annual 10 percent price jumps.

    A slow down in price inflation is good news for many important players in metro     Phoenix's workforce, nurses, firefighters, retail workers, police officers, who are struggling to afford to buy a house in the cities where they work. The price hikes have threatened metro Phoenix's image as an affordable-housing mecca.

    Phoenix crossed over to the wrong side of the affordability index this year. The national median price for a resale home was $220,000 in August. In metro Phoenix, that house sold for $258,700. A year earlier, the national number was $190,000 and metro Phoenix stood at $177,500. Rachael Ruiz, 25, who works at an insurance agency, was ready to buy a house in late May and was approved for a $225,000 loan. She house-shopped before going on a two-week vacation and saw several homes she liked in her price range. But by July, those East Valley homes were selling for $275,000. "I couldn't believe it. A month later, everything I saw in my price range was totally run down," she said.

    Ruiz was able to buy a remodeled     Mesa home for $275,000 by taking in three roommates. "It works great, now I don't have to spend every penny on my house," she said.

    Buyers needing roommates to afford a home is a new trend for metro     Phoenix, though it's a common practice in the nation's priciest home markets in California and on the East Coast. It's one more sign of some of the extreme measures being taken by players on both sides of the market and an indication of how runaway demand and rising prices have changed the rules of the Phoenix-area housing market.

    "Buyers have had to sacrifice a lot to get into houses they want," said Stacey Akers of     Keller Williams Realty East Valley. "They had to make decisions quickly, put their contract in fast and promise sellers a lot."

    Earlier in the year, bidding wars were common in the resale market, and houses sold for thousands of dollars above asking price. Real estate agents talked of contracts written on car hoods and houses bought sight-unseen by out-of-state investors hoping to cash in on soaring prices.

    Returning to normal pace

    Akers says the Valley's housing market is starting to return to a more normal pace, which is good for buyers and sellers.

    "Some buyers were promising sellers the moon and then backing out of deals," she said.

    On the new-home side of the business, builders still are holding drawings for the limited number of lots they release. Some buyers camped out overnight at subdivisions hoping to get lucky one of the drawings. Builders also banned or restricted buying by investors, who then poured into the resale market and began pushing up those prices.

    The     Phoenix area surged ahead of Atlanta last year to become the country's top home building market. There were 60,872 homes permitted in the Valley last year, a 27.5 percent jump from the previous year. Analysts expect a similar performance from the new-home market this year. But the market is throwing out mixed signals and there are signs that it is beginning to slow. There was a summer sag in the number of permits issued for new homes. The number of permits for new homes issued in August fell 3.73 percent to 5,548 compared with the same month a year ago. That came after a more than 23 percent decline in July. The number of existing homes for sale is inching up and it's taking a few more days for homes to sell. Buyers also have more leverage to make deals without offering full price or a contract with an escalator clause that automatically raises a bid.

    "Prices aren't climbing as high as they were. It's a mild correction the market definitely needed," said P.J. Dean, a real estate agent with Dean-Maldonado. "But people are still slugging it out for houses."

    It's the homes selling for under $250,000 that move the fastest. Lucas Gotta returned from military service in     Iraq early this year, and he and his fianc饬 Rachel Donelson, decided it was time to buy a house before prices climbed too high. They had been looking for a central Valley home costing less than $175,000 for a few months when their agent saw a $164,000 home in northwest Phoenix go on the market at noon on a Monday near the end of May. Bob Reed of Windermere Realty called the couple, and they were at the three-bedroom, two-bathroom house by 4 p.m. that day. They put in an offer of $169,000 for the house by 6 p.m.

    The sellers' agent, Dawn Marie Bailey of Re/Max Integrity, called Reed the next morning to tell him she had 25 offers so far, and 10 of them were from investors who hadn't even seen the home. The young couple's offer had been the first one not from an investor, and Bailey, who wanted to work with them, made a counteroffer of $173,000. Gotta and Donelson jumped at the deal and closed on the house by June 30.

    Investors came to Valley

    Investors are making up at least 25 percent of all Valley home purchases this year. Many of them were attracted to the Phoenix area after buying and selling houses in other markets that boomed, like the Los Angeles area and Las Vegas. Some market watchers think investors are beginning to sell, not wanting to be caught owning too much property when price gains begin to cool.

    Carol Ewig, an agent at     West USA's Kierland office, said she has seen a slowing in the number of investor clients shopping the Valley market. But she also said she hasn't seen any signs that investors who have money in Valley housing are ready to cash out.

    "Nobody has called me yet and said, " 'Carol, let's sell.' I do feel the market has slowed but it's not a bursting bubble. There are a lot more homes on the market."

    In some areas, the market has slowed from overdrive to merely very, very fast. Jenny Chesnik and her husband, David, recently sold their house at an 83 percent profit to buyers who made them an offer, even thought it wasn't for sale. The buyers had been looking for nine months but couldn't find anything on Chesnik's street in north     Central Phoenix. When their agent finally asked the couple which house they liked best, they pointed to Chesnik's home.

    "The Realtor looked up our tax records, Googled our name and left a message for me," Chesnik said. "A few days later, the Realtor came for a tour and said her buyers must see the house. The wife was on a cruise but had left a signed contract. The husband toured the home the following day and said that he wasn't leaving until we had a deal."

    Affordable to others

    Even with rising prices, houses in metro Phoenix are still affordable by California and East Coast standards. Kim and Don Nottke and their four children owned a 1,200-square-foot townhouse in Orange County. They love the California lifestyle and didn't want to move from there. Their plan was to invest in real estate in Phoenix, so they could make enough money and move up in to bigger home in Orange County. But when the family visited Kim Nottke's mother last Thanksgiving, Don checked out a 3,700-square-foot new home in a gated development in Surprise.

    "He saw a model and said he had to 'get it for his wife,' " said Kitty Pabich of Coldwell Banker Residential. "One look was all it took. They purchased it that day and moved in last month."

    They made so much money on their     California home that Kim Nottke doesn't have to find a job and is looking at opening a dance studio in Surprise. Don, a construction superintendent, had no trouble finding a job in the Valley.

    Analysts think price gains will slow, a healthy change for an overheated market.

    "The good news is that we've seen the decline begin in price increases and that's the most positive thing that could happen to this market now," said housing analyst RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. "We need to see that decline continue until we no longer face a potential crisis of losing our affordability advantage."

     


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